Unlike other viruses that have emerged in the past two decades, coronaviruses are highly recombinogenic. Influenza viruses reassort (exchange whole RNA/DNA segments from similar viruses) but they do not undergo homologous recombination (acquisition of small sequences from variants) within RNA segments.
Recombination is a pervasive process generating diversity in most viruses. It joins variants that arise independently within the same molecule, creating new opportunities for viruses to overcome selective pressures and to adapt to new environments and hosts…
Recombination... can have a major impact on their (coronaviruses’) evolution. Indeed, recombination has been associated with the expansion of viral host ranges, the emergence of new viruses, the alteration of transmission vector specificities, increases in virulence and pathogenesis, the modification of tissue tropisms, the evasion of host immunity, and the evolution of resistance to antivirals.
These characteristics mean that SARS-Cov-2 can be predicted to create new variants quickly and would readily adapt in means of transmission, increases in lethality, change to infect different body tissues, evade immunity and develop resistance to vaccines. The experts knew this. SARS-Cov-2 was already killing people. Its potential was therefore to adapt to killing not only the elderly and already vulnerable but also to become more lethal, kill and injure other age groups as well as adapt to vaccines. Knowing this from their basic knowledge of coronaviruses, the SAGE experts nevertheless adopted a ‘herd immunity’ policy. This policy and even a mass vaccination policy could have been predicted to fail and for the widespread currently existing variants to develop.
The reason why a coronavirus ‘herd immunity’ policy is far more dangerous than an infection prevention policy is not only the immediate deaths that it causes. ‘Herd immunity’ depends on infecting most of the population. Each infection is an opportunity for the virus to mutate. For example, if the probability of a mutation occurring is one per year in a population of 1,000, in a population of 100,000 one can predict, x100 = 100 mutations per year. The higher the infected population number the greater the number of variants, some of which will be more dangerous. As vaccines are not 100% effective, this applies to resistance as well. The adoption of the ‘herd immunity’ policy by SAGE must therefore have an explanation other than that of saving lives because it can easily be predicted not to save lives. It will kill people in the short term and permit high numbers of mutations of unknown properties to develop in the long term. An infection-prevention policy has the opposite effect on viral mutations. Even if imperfect, it keeps infection numbers low and therefore deaths and the numbers of variants low. The virus is therefore more manageable so that locally focussed action to eliminate it becomes practical. This was the approach adopted in the SE Asian countries, NZ and Australia.
I know no virology but do know what these characteristics mean. SAGE and the government were making assumptions about the new virus’s behaviour that were unjustified due lack of data as I said in my first emails of 16 March 2020 to my MP. They also made false assumptions despite the knowledge that they actually possessed about coronaviruses generally. Their ‘herd immunity’ strategy combined with failure to take aggressive public health measures using all means available was a disastrously lethal policy for the country. The only credible explanation is that they were focussed on vaccines and creating a market for them. ‘Herd immunity’ was a predictably disastrous policy that once implemented needed the extreme infection-prevention measures of three lockdowns to control infections and deaths. Its effects are still with us.
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