Patrick Vallance Explains Covid Herd Immunity
On 19 March 2021 the UK's Guardian newspaper ran an article about Patrick Vallance, informing us that the government's Chief Scientific Advisor is an unafraid speaker of scientific truth to power. The Guardian's example is that SAGE advised an immediate lockdown before the March 16 press conference. To the contrary, the Telegraph of 11 June 2020 asserts that the SAGE minutes reveal that they were not calling for an early lockdown at all. Mr Vallance himself claims that he argued "stronger than anyone" for lockdown. I have a BBC video copy of the 12 March 2020 presentation with Messrs Johnson, Whitty and Vallance together. Patrick Vallance says plainly in front of his imaginary infection curve diagram, "So that's one aim is to change the shape of this (curve) and it's important to recognize that you can't stop everybody getting this (virus) because it's not possible and it's actually not desirable because we want some immunity in the population." There it is. At this time all three, Messrs Vallance, Whitty and Johnson were attempting to convince us that science, their computer model and diagram predicted how, by doing nothing whatever, the infection curve would flatten and with 'herd immunity' it would drop to zero. It was not science. It was gibberish, scientific nonsense and was obviously a policy that would cause huge numbers of deaths. I said so to my MP Chris Philp in these two emails dated 16 and 17 March 2020.
Subject: The PM and Covid-19 (2)
Date: Tue, 17 Mar 2020 16:14:22 +0000
From: Christopher King (address deleted)
To: Chris Philp MP <chris.philp.mp@parliament.uk> <mailto:chris.philp.mp@parliament.uk>
Dear Chris,
Today we learn:
1. Our genius medical advisers put an assumption into their computer model that the virus would attenuate quickly and give 'herd immunity' but it hasn't happened. They therefore did nothing when they had the chance to contain it by testing and tracking as the WHO advised. The result will be more cases, more deaths, a longer duration of the plague, no statistics of infection and we have an out-of-control situation. This is criminal negligence of the most serious kind.
2. The PM hasn't ordered restaurants, bars and sporting fixtures etc closed because it would enable these concerns to claim on their insurance. He has put insurance companies' interests ahead of the public interest and citizens' lives.
The goodwill and confidence that we have had in the PM are gone.
Best regards,
Christopher King
Subject: The PM and Covid-19
Date: Mon, 16 Mar 2020 18:54:09 +0000
From: Christopher King (address deleted)
To: Chris Philp MP <chris.philp.mp@parliament.uk> <mailto:chris.philp.mp@parliament.uk>
Dear Chris,
1. I have never heard such nonsense in my life as from the PM and his incompetent advisers today.
2. These incompetent people are not following WHO advice to TEST AND TRACK.
3. Their measures are a continuation of the ridiculous and dangerous 'heard immunity' theory
4. *Their computer models clearly conform to the model 'garbage in - garbage out'
5. They have known about this virus for many months and have done nothing until it has reached the UK
6. Their measures to stop close contacts are bound to be ineffective. Gatherings must be closed down
7. Their assumptions about the virus's long term behaviour have no foundation. What IS known is how to prevent a pandemic and it is not being done
8. They do not answer direct questions - merely waffle and repeat aspirations. This is not science
9. The NHS has been eviscerated of front line resources and stuffed with incompetent managers on ridiculous salaries (eg Mayday in Richard Ottaway's time)
Is the government's real intention to kill off the older generation which is using up resources and thus solve the 'demographic time bomb' that is now activated?
*In terms of statistical objectives, 'flattening the curve' that is the mantra of the 'scientists' is inadequate. That is merely to alter the shape of the curve and assumes that the number of infections in this case will remain constant. That would be a valid approach if the number of infections were known and could be redistributed by this means. In reality the number cannot be known but what is certain is that it will increase much more rapidly than if WHO advice is followed and aggressive measures to prevent group infections are not taken. The correct objective should be to reduce the numbers under the curve, ie total infections, not merely to flatten it to avoid overwhelming the NHS. The government's approach guarantees that total infections and deaths will be higher than if WHO advice is followed and the NHS is much more likely to be overwhelmed.
I do not accept this nonsense and the public will not either. Please urge the PM to start using genuine science, not crazy theories and models - or worse.
Best wishes,
Christopher King
A few days later I suggested to Mr Philp that due to my experience at a local garden centre, the government should implement Covid-safe training for retail staff and made other suggestions to improve government policy. Copies are appended below.
Since then I have regularly written to Chris Philp MP to suggest NPI measures. I was baffled that these eminent, knowledgeable experts did not implement obvious public health measures. Their strategy is now clear. It was not to reduce the number of infections as Mr Johnson has subsequently claimed he always tried to do. That was a lie as I also said to Mr Philp at the time. The strategy was to allow infections to increase until vaccines became available. That is also why the country was taken out of lockdowns twice when death numbers were low without any strategy for action to keep infections and deaths low. That gave three lockdowns.. The demand for vaccines had to be created and the population had to be frightened enough to accept them without question. Corporate science and the virologists would save the country and humanity. There would be neither glory nor money for them in manufacturing masks, PPE and implementing conventional public health measures. Anyone with basic medical knowledge could do that. Six months ago I acquired a chart that showed what reduction could be expected from about eight public health measures, based on European research. A great deal might have been done, especially with a little imagination and tens of thousands of lives could have been saved.
Let's remind ourselves of Patrick Vallance's explanation of government policy on 12 March 2020: "...it's important to recognize that you can't stop everybody getting this (virus) because it's not possible and it's actually not desirable because we want some immunity in the population." He and Chris Whitty said much more that was consistent with this. Even if SAGE and Mr Vallance had genuinely believed that it was impossible to stop widespread infection, there were many measures that might have been taken to reduce infections and deaths. The most obvious is manufacturing FFP2 certified masks in the UK and making them widely available. A few Chinese masks of unknown quality were available at ridiculous cost. I had to buy mine from Germany. The general public, the vulnerable and even front line workers were left to fend for themselves. They did not manufacture masks for the public or take other obvious measures because they wanted widespread infections, were willing to tolerate other people's deaths and had already planned mass vaccinations to a fearful population. At the time there were no data whatever about the possibility of natural immunity acquisition following infection, particularly if the virus were not natural but engineered. Their policy was scientific nonsense. In reality the virus is not behaving as they expected. Natural or engineered virus, they wanted a vaccines policy. That is what we now have and the public has been locked into it.
Many people will not believe that SAGE and our government could have such disregard for the lives of the men and women of their own country. The evidence is that human life has always been valued as cheap when money is to be made. The asbestos and DDT controversies are past examples; the cigarette industry, sugar, neonicotinoids and glyphosate continue to demonstrate it. More dramatically we have the evidence of our recent wars of choice initiated in the oil producing countries of the Middle East. The USA, UK and EU killed perhaps 4 million people there and devastated those countries to steal their oil. President Trump was open about it but it was always clear that this was the case. It was inevitable that this attitude would surface internally in our own country as well. Only public action can stop it.
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